家戶購屋與生育行為關係：資源排擠與動機刺激The Relationship between House Buying and the Fertility Behavior of Households: Resource Exclusion and Motivated Stimulus

現今高房價與低生育率情形，使家戶購屋及生育行為決策受到關注。過去研究指出兩行為皆為家庭重要支出項目，存在資源排擠效果；然而多數研究忽略兩行為對於提高家庭穩定性的貢獻，可能刺激家戶擁有孩子或房子的動機。本研究分別建立家戶購屋及生育行為存活模型，試圖同時從資源排擠與動機刺激面向，探討家戶購屋及生育行為關係。實證結果發現生育後家戶之購屋機率以遞減方式在增加，購屋後家戶之生育機率則隨著時間遞減，說明資源排擠與動機刺激隨時間改變作用，且對於購屋與生育行為發生次序及事件發生於高房價時期之作用力亦不同，進而影響家庭行為。

關鍵詞：高房價、資源排擠、動機刺激、存活分析

The households’ relationship in terms of house buying and fertility behavior has received much attention due to the high housing prices and low birth rate in Taiwan. These two behaviors are households’ major expenses and there might be resource exclusion. However, previous studies have ignored that the contribution of these two behaviors regarding improving households’ stability may encourage them to have children or buy houses. Thus, this study has tried to investigate the relationship of these two behaviors from the dimensions of resource exclusion and motivated stimulus by constructing the survival models. The empirical data were retrieved from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) in Taiwan. The results show that the probability of first-time house buying increases with a gradual decrease after the household’s birth of the first child. On the other hand, the probability of fertility decreases gradually over time after the household’s first-time house buying. It indicates that the effects of resource exclusion and motivated stimulus change over time and there exist different effects in terms of the order of house buying and fertility behaviors. The force is also different when the events occur in a period of high prices.

Key words: high housing price, resource exclusion, motivated stimulus, survival analysis