不動產買賣與拍賣次級市場流動性影響因素Determinants of Liquidity in Secondary Real Estate Market

本研究利用縱橫資料模型區分市場、需求、供給與金融等四類指標變數，探討不動產買賣與拍賣次級市場流動性影響因素，實證發現市場指標之不動產拍賣市場價格上升與供給指標之核發住宅使用執照樓地板面積增加等皆顯著增加兩次級市場流動性，而供給指標之住宅存量宅數增加則顯著減少兩次級市場流動性。需求指標皆未能增加兩次級市場流動性，而金融指標雖影響不動產買賣市場流動性，但不動產拍賣市場住宅金融需求較低，故不影響不動產拍賣市場流動性，是以政府得經由信用寬鬆或緊縮政策之貸款成數，控制不動產買賣市場流動性，藉此助長或抑制不動產景氣，惟貨幣緊縮之利率政策，反而產生通貨膨脹預期之避險需求，增加不動產買賣市場流動性。

關鍵詞：不動產、流動性、次級市場、拍賣市場、縱橫資料

This study presents an analysis of panel data on market, demand, supply, and financial indicators to investigate the determinants of liquidity in the trading and auction markets. The empirical results confirm that the liquidities of the two secondary markets are positively correlated with auction prices, as proxy market indicators, and with the floor area of occupancy permits, as proxy supply indicators. However, the effects of the housing stock on the two real estate markets are negatively and significantly correlated and significant outcomes are absent in relation to housing demand. Moreover, although housing finance affects the liquidity of the trading market, because the cash settlement system in the auction market produces a low level of loan demand, it does not affect the liquidity of the auction market. Therefore, the authority can effectively influence the liquidity of the real estate market through loose and tight credit policies, and further control the real estate business cycle. In particular, the hedging demand for the expected inflation risk increases the liquidity of the real estate trading market when the economic environment is restricted.

Key words: real estate, liquidity, secondary market, auction market, panel data