住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係─ 追蹤資料共整合分析應用Long-term Relationships between Housing Affordability and Homeownership Rates: An Application of Panel Cointegration Model
This paper uses the panel cointegration model to investigate the determinants of long-term homeownership rates for four cities in Taiwan. The results show that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between homeownership rates and household income, the percentage of married couples, the percentage of elderly people, and mobility rates. No long-run cointegration relationship is found to exist between homeownership rates and house prices, changes in the number of households, or rental costs. In addition, homeownership rates and the house price-to-income ratio are cointegrated only in Taipei County. However, if we consider long-term trends in the model,then all variables are cointegrated with homeownership rates. Furthermore, the results of the cointegration vectors show that the influences of the percentage of elderly people and the percentage of married couples on homeownership rates are more significant than that of house prices and household income. However, the most important variables influencing homeownership rates differ in each of the four cities.
Key words: homeownership rate, housing affordability, house price, household income, panel