空屋移轉模型—住宅部門之互動分析Housing Vacancy Transfer Model- A Study of Housing Sector Interaction
This article uses the population data of Cleveland in the United States to explore the interaction between families and houses in the process of housing change. Population migration will be accompanied by the opposite transfer of vacant houses, which represents changes in housing demand and housing supply. In the statistical data of the three years from 1937 to 39, the result of empirical analysis shows that the lengths of the vacancy chain in the three years are 3.07, 3.83, and 4.21 respectively, which shows an increasing trend annually. Divide the households into ten groups according to the rent level of decile, and then use the marginal sum adjustment factor to redistribute the household distribution. The result shows that the model fits very well. Moreover, the length of vacancy chain for households with medium rent levels is higher than the those of families with the highest rents and the lowest rents. The main reason for the end of the vacancy chain is the family move-in and the household formation. The demolition of the house is not a very important factor for the end of the vacancy chain. According to the result of the correlation analysis, there is a high correlation among the population migration multiplier, the length of the vacancy chain and the rent decile gaps.
Key words: housing change, population migration, length of vacancy chain