待更新不動產之實質選擇權價值分析A Study on the Real Option Value of the Urban Redevelopment of Real Estate
This study applies real option theory to analyze the influences of market conditions and urban redevelopment policies on the option value and optimal timing of the redevelopment of real estate.The simulation results reveal some interesting findings. Firstly, although the redevelopment project can generate positive revenue when the remaining economic life of the structure is twenty years,since the market rent can not reach the redevelopment hurdle value when considering the risk of rent uncertainty, the owners will not execute redevelopment project immediately. Secondly, a low expected rent appreciation rate and its variance (for example in Datong District and Wanhua District) implies that the market conditions are not good in the near future, and so the effect of the
bonus of the floor area ratio will be offset. Thirdly, the real option value of redevelopment real estate is positively correlated with the bonus of the floor area ratio, the expected rent appreciation rate and its variance, but is negatively correlated with the remaining economic life and redevelopment costrelated variables. Finally, an increase in the remaining economic life, the variance of the expected rent appreciation rate, and the redevelopment-cost related variables will delay the optimal timing of the redevelopment decision, but the effect of the bonus of the floor area ratio will be reversed.However, an either too high or too low expected rent appreciation rate will delay the optimal timing of redevelopment.
Key words: real option, urban redevelopment, redevelopment real estate, hurdle value