逆向房屋抵押貸款在臺灣推行之需求分析The Analysis of Demand for the Reverse Mortgage Program in Taiwan

近年來我國人口呈少子化與高齡化之趨勢，此趨勢帶來龐大財政負擔及老年人口安養等社會福利問題，是目前備受政府與金融市場關注的議題。因此本研究旨在提供一可能解決之道--- 「逆(反)向房屋抵押貸款(reverse mortgage, RM)」。本研究先對30至60歲且名下擁有不動產之家戶進行問卷調查，並以以羅吉斯迴歸(logistic regression)分析影響申請意願之顯著因子，研究結果顯示，當潛在消費者教育程度越高、購有理財型保險、資產持有以股票、債券或基金為主、以及退休後不與子女同住者等，越有意願申請逆向房屋抵押貸款。另一方面，本研究利用意願程度與是否具備支付能力或資格者，推估申請逆向房屋抵押貸款之潛在需求量，研究顯示目前臺灣對逆向貸款潛在需求量約為20萬戶至35萬戶。
關鍵字：逆(反)向房屋抵押貸款、羅吉斯迴歸、在宅老化

With its continuously declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy, Taiwan has become one of the aging societies in the world. To alleviate the financial strain on the government, a great amount of research has suggested an alternative option --- the reverse mortgage (RM) --- to improve the living quality of the retiring elderly. This study identifies factors affecting the interest in applying for RM in Taiwan. A questionnaire survey was conducted among middle-aged homeowners, and analyzed through a Logistic regression model. The results indicate that homeowners who participate in whole life insurance programs, invest in financial assets, intend to live apart from their children, and have higher education levels are more likely to apply for RM. We also estimate the potential market demand for RM in Taiwan. The findings reveal that potential demand for RM in Taiwan ranges from 200,000 to 346,000 households. These results can serve as valuable reference for governments and financial institutions with a view to determining whether and how to launch reverse mortgage programs.
Key words: reverse mortgage, logistic regression, aging in place