市場關注與房市變化關聯性之驗證An Examination of Market Attention in the Real Estate Market
Psychological research indicates that people’s ability to process information is limited, so where and how much attention is paid will have an important impact on the decision-making process. Limited attention often makes people ignore some useful information and leads to excessive or insufficient judgments regarding the market. This study uses Google search volume as a proxy variable for market attention, and explores the relationship between market attention and four indicators, namely, housing prices, transaction volume, time-on-the-market and price concession.
The empirical evidence obtained from basic linear regression shows that the impact of market attention on these four market indicators is significant during the corresponding period and lagged one period, and the signs of the regression coefficients are consistent with the theory. However, the direction of the relationship between the overall market attention and the housing price indicator is reversed when the variables are lagged two periods. The empirical findings of the threshold effect tests show that the attention has a significant threshold effect on housing prices, time-on-the-market and price concession. When the overall market attention accumulates to a relatively low level, it will cause time-on-the-market and price concession to have nonlinear changes. When the attention of the existing housing market accumulates to a relatively low level, it will cause a nonlinear change in
time-on-the-market. However, only when the attention of the existing housing market accumulates to a relatively high level will it lead to nonlinear changes in housing prices. The VECM Granger causality tests show that there is a two-way relationship between the overall market attention and housing prices, and there is also a two-way relationship between the attention of the existing housing market and transaction volume. The findings of this study should contribute to a better understanding of the psychological factor of market participants and how it affects changes in the real estate market.
Key words: attention, Google search, psychological factors, real estate market