COVID-19疫情下之房市變化： 恐慌、政府疫情因應與房市調控政策分析Housing Market Fluctuation Under the COVID-19 Pandemics: Analysis of Panic, Government Response to the Pandemic, and Housing Market Regulation

本文探討新冠疫情下恐慌情緒、媒體報導、政府因應與房市調控對房市變化的影響，並依疫情嚴峻程度分期分析。理論上疫情應抑制房市，但研究發現疫情嚴重度與恐慌情緒僅在初期對房市有負向效果；隨後因全球寬鬆貨幣、資金外溢及台灣疫情控制得宜，房市反而熱絡。疫情期間民眾外出受限，媒體對房價與交易量影響大。政府因應政策在潛伏期無顯著效果，爆發期始對房價有正面影響力；緩和期後確診數與恐慌對房價、交易量影響消失。央行調控政策則至第二次才壓抑房市，顯示在特殊狀況下，政策需更強力方能抑制房價。本研究結果可供未來疫情下之政策參考。
關鍵詞：新冠肺炎、恐慌、房市、媒體報導、政府政策

This study investigates the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic, panic
sentiment, media influence, governmental responses, housing market regulation, and housing
market dynamics through an empirical analysis segmented by pandemic severity. In theory,
the pandemic should exert a negative impact on the housing market; however, results indicate
that both pandemic severity and panic sentiment generated significant adverse effects only in
the initial stage. Thereafter, the combination of expansionary monetary policies, international
capital spillovers, and Taiwan’s effective pandemic containment sustained robust housing
market activity. Self-imposed mobility reduction further amplified the role of media in shaping
housing prices and transaction volumes. Government response measures exhibited no significant
effects during the incubation period but demonstrated a positive association with housing
prices during the outbreak stage. In the easing stage, confirmed cases no longer significantly
influenced the market, while panic sentiment displayed a negative correlation with housing
prices, and the combined effects of confirmed cases, panic, and media on transaction volumes
diminished. Central bank regulatory interventions to address overheating only produced
measurable dampening effects beginning in the second round, underscoring the necessity of
stronger regulatory actions under extraordinary circumstances. These findings contribute to the
understanding of housing market resilience during crises and provide a policy reference for
managing future pandemic-related shocks.
Key words: COVID-19, panic, housing market, media, governemnt policy