迷信信念對房價之影響—以傾向分數配對法與 無條件分量迴歸之分析The Impacts of Superstitious Beliefs on Housing Prices: Propensity Score Matching & Unconditional Quantile Regression Analyses

本研究主要探討受到風水迷信效果影響之四樓與非四樓間之價格差異。採用無條件分量迴歸(unconditional quantile regression, UQR)進行估計。OLS結果顯示，四樓價格比二樓低16.6%，五樓價格則比二樓低25.6%。UQR結果顯示，在0.1分量低價分布下，四樓價格低於三樓8.6%與低於五樓9.8%甚多。此顯示在低價格分布下，四樓交易之折價現象具有風水信仰的作用。另四樓房價會隨著房價分量的增加折價程度亦會隨著遞增。從此高低分量價格分布所顯示之折價差異程度，即可推知四樓折價幅度也與價格高低分布不同有關，價格分量愈高，則出自於風水迷信的折價亦愈大。

關鍵詞：四樓、迷信信念、傾向分數配對法、無條件分量迴歸

This study mainly explored the impacts of feng shui taboos on the price differences between fourth-floor and non-fourth-floor houses. Estimations were performed using unconditional quantile regression (UQR). The ordinary least squares results demonstrated that fourth-floor houses were 16.6% cheaper than second-floor houses, while fifth-floor houses were 25.6% cheaper than second-floor houses. The UQR results demonstrated that in the 0.1 quantile, the prices of fourth-floor houses were lower by 8.6% and 9.8% than those of third- and fifth-floor houses, respectively. This shows that in the distribution of low-priced houses, the price discounts of fourth-floor houses are influenced by feng shui taboos. Furthermore, the price discount of fourth-floor houses increases with the housing price quantile. Based on the margin of the differences in the price discounts between low-priced and high-priced houses, the extent to which fourth-floor houses are discounted is associated with the distribution of housing prices. The higher the price quantile, the greater the discount resulting from feng shui superstition.

Key words: fourth floor, superstitious beliefs, propensity score matching method, unconditional quantile regression